By Dick Jerardi
As the 2025 Triple Crown season nears the finish line, my mind keeps drifting ahead to 2027 when, if all goes according to plan, the Preakness will be run at the new Pimlico and the Belmont Stakes will be run at the new Belmont Park.
One thing that will never change about the series is that the Kentucky Derby will be run at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May (barring another pandemic, please no). But change may be coming in 2027, beyond just the new venues.
The Derby has a long term contract with NBC. The Belmont Stakes has a long term contract with Fox. The Preakness NBC contract is up after next year when the Preakness will be run at Laurel Park while Pimlico is under construction.
I am told that both NBC and Fox have an interest in bidding for the Preakness. But neither network is thrilled with the present dates (Derby, 2 weeks to the Preakness, 3 weeks to the Belmont) arrangement. And for good reason.
If the Derby winner regularly skips the Preakness, as has happened three times in the last six years (factoring out 2020 when it was Belmont, Derby, Preakness in that order spread over months), the Preakness is not nearly as attractive a television product. And when the Derby winner does not run in the Preakness, there is, of course, no chance for a Triple Crown. And that affects the ratings for the Belmont Stakes.
Beyond the ratings, there is also the matter of a Preakness without the Derby winner not being close to the same event for Pimlico. Same goes for Belmont Park without a Triple Crown possibility. These are by far the biggest days of the year at those tracks and they want to maximize them.
The solution has been obvious for a while now: Given how trainers have spaced races for their top horses in the 21st Century (only the TC series has races this close), just move the Preakness to the first Saturday of June and the Belmont to the first Saturday of July. That way, you are more likely to get all the best horses for the three most important races in the sport.
Pimlico resisted for a while because of its Preakness infield party which was perfectly positioned for college students in mid May. But, for a variety of reasons, the infield is no longer the scene it once was. So when the new Pimlico opens, management is going to want to maximize what it still has – a great race with hopefully the Derby winner. Moving it 4 weeks after the Derby just makes sense.
So what does Belmont Park management want to do? Well, if Fox gets the Preakness, they are certainly going to want 4 weeks from the Derby to the Preakness to a. Have a better chance of getting the Derby winner so b. They have an actual chance of having a Triple Crown bid. Which means July for the Belmont Stakes.
Until now, Belmont Park has been reluctant to move its signature race to July because it then brings it very close to its Saratoga meet. But I am told that is less of an issue than it once was.
If NBC holds on to the Preakness, the network is almost certainly going to want the Preakness moved to make it a more valuable property.
So, stay tuned. I have been a proponent of moving the races for a while now. I actually think horses can perform just fine with the present arrangement (Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, American Pharoah, Justify and even Mine that Bird) kept their form through all three races. But it doesn’t really matter what I think. The trainers think their horses need more time between races and no amount of evidence to the contrary is going to convince them otherwise.
Since Justify, only War of Will (2019) and Mystik Dan (2024) have run in all three races. Journalism’s name will be added to that list when the Preakness winner and Derby second runs in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Also since Justify, no horse has even won two of the three races.
I will be rooting for Journalism to prove again it can be done, that the very best horses can hold their form through the five weeks even in this era. But even if Journalism wins, it’s not likely to change the prevailing wisdom that more time is needed between the races. Certainly, the Triple Crown winners in 2015 and 2018 did not change it.
By the way, make sure to check out this week’s “Gate to Wire” podcast. Dani Gibson, Bruce Casella, and I spoke with Journalism’s trainer, Michael McCarthy, one of the most insightful people in the sport. He spoke about his horse, the preparation for the big races, the day of those races, and the possibility of bringing Journalism to Parx in September for the Pennsylvania Derby.
Also, I asked about the day two years ago at Saratoga when Journalism was purchased for $825,000 by one of his owners. McCarthy’s thoughts? With that price, the horse is probably going to Todd Pletcher, his former boss. But they sent the colt to McCarthy. Now, trainer and horse have a chance to make 2020s history by becoming the first to win two of the Triple Crown races.
