By Dick Jerardi
If it’s late March, that must mean it is time for the annual intersection of the final Kentucky Derby preps and the NCAA basketball tournament. It also means it is six months until the Pennsylvania Derby.
It has always been fascinating to me to see the parallels between these two March (and early April) events, the final preps that really are essential to eliminating the horses that are not good enough for the Derby until we are left with the 20 that qualify to go on to Louisville and the basketball tournament which eliminates 52 teams the first week and 12 the next until we are left with the Final Four in Indianapolis.
The big difference, of course, is that while basketball begins with 68 teams, there were actually 367 horses nominated to the 2026 Triple Crown series. You must win to survive and advance in basketball, while coming close enough in those final preps still gives you a chance in horse racing.
The Louisiana Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, and Jeff Ruby Steaks are now in the rear view mirror. The Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby are Saturday (same day as the hoops Elite Eight begins), the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, and Wood Memorial the following Saturday, which just happens to correspond with the Final Four.
Nobody will be shocked that there were years while I was sitting courtside during a Final Four game, I was also watching the Santa Anita Derby on my computer. In fact, I finalized my “California Chrome is a cinc” thoughts while watching the race in the Jerry Jones Dome outside Dallas during the 2014 Final Four, telling my seatmate as the horses came into the stretch: “you want to see the Derby winner.”
I have no such pronouncements yet, but I would suggest watching the Florida Derby very closely. I think the Derby winner is coming out of that race. Commandment and Chief Wallabee were 1-2 in the Fountain of Youth and ran powerfully enough to suggest that was just the appetizer. I was also dazzled by Nearly’s win in the Holy Bull.
It looked for like a minute that Todd Pletcher might be in Derby trouble when 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey was taken off the Derby trail. Pletcher, however, had 30 other nominees and is very much alive with several of those, including Nearly.
Bob Baffert nominated 23 to the series. None of them have screamed “bet me in Kentucky” yet. But pay close attention to all Baffert runners.
Chad Brown (22 nominated) and Brad Cox (21) are very much alive with several horses. Paladin runs in the Blue Grass for Brown. Cox has Commandment.
There are 37 Japanese horses nominated. When you watch Forever Young develop into the world’s best dirt horse (he runs in the Saturday’s Dubai World Cup), you know it is just a matter of time until a horse from Japan wins the Derby.
Meanwhile, we watch the horses, and we watch the hoops. That my two favorite sports just happen to be in the middle of this annual march through March to culminations on the first Saturday of May and the first Monday of April are why this is my favorite sporting month of the year.
Pay close attention to everything. You never know when that “moment” will come and bring clarity to what is always a complicated puzzle.
