By Dick Jerardi
How could I possibly pick any horse other than Journalism? Seriously, beyond the name, there is the performance and the speed figures and the running style.
I just happened to be at Santa Anita a few weeks before Journalism made his 2025 debut in the San Felipe Stakes. The colt’s trainer, Michael McCarthy, came over to the track for a few races and, in his understated way, you could tell that he had immense confidence in the son of Curlin.
When Journalism ran down Barnes in the prep race of the year on March 1, it was hard not to share his confidence. Top horses like Barnes rarely lose when they get uncontested leads in moderate fractions. In fact, Barnes ran really well that day. Journalism just inhaled him in the stretch. When the race earned a 108 Beyer Figure, I had my Derby horse.
What happened next in the Santa Anita Derby just confirmed what went down in the San Felipe. Journalism showed enough speed to stay close to a hotter pace and then when old rival Barnes impeded him during the run down the backstretch, Journalism briefly lost contact with the field. Just as I was starting to get concerned, the colt immediately got back into gear and made that familiar charge in the stretch and, with giant strides, won going away.
When I can see how a race is likely to develop, I feel much more confident having an opinion. I see Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Rodriguez, Admire Daytona, East Avenue and Owen Almighty all with early speed. Some combination of that group should be on or near the lead coming out of the first turn.
I also see Journalism with enough speed to be at or at least very near the head of the next pack, with hopefully around 12 or 13 horses behind him. When the lead pack begins to tire around the three-eighths pole, I see Journalism making the first move, taking the lead by the quarter pole or a bit after, and winning by open lengths.
It’s rarely as simple as my vision, but that is my vision. We shall see how it plays out early Saturday evening. Whatever happens, this Derby is fascinating on so many levels.
Bob Baffert, going for a record seventh Derby, is back after a 3-year suspension by Churchill Downs. He has two of the horses with early speed, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, but, as explained, that may not be the right formula to win this race.
Steve Asmussen has won a North American record 10,800 races. He has trained three Horses of the Year and won every big race there is, except one: the Kentucky Derby, where he is 0-for-26. He has Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic and Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher (still a maiden) side by side in the starting gate.
Luxor Cafe, a son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has won four straight in Japan and after Forever Young’s brilliant but unlucky third in the Derby last year, may be bet like he is as good as Forever Young. Speed figure data, however, would suggest he is not of that caliber.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square. Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty and Tiztastic are the deep closers that would be really helped by a hot, contested pace.
Ageless Wayne Lukas goes for his fifth Derby with Virginia Derby winner American Promise, a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
If No. 21 Baeza scratches into the race and you are into breeding, consider this: His half brother Mage won the 2023 Derby and his half brother Dornoch won the 2024 Belmont Stakes.
So, storylines everywhere and my strongest Derby opinion since Justify in 2018 and, before that, California Chrome in 2016. Those worked out rather well. Let’s see about Journalism.
