many unanswered questions in new 3 yo series

By Dick Jerardi

So the headline in the press release that dropped Monday morning read: Horse Racing’s Biggest Events Unite in Landmark New “Thoroughbred Championship Series.”

A more accurate headline would have said: Horse Racing’s Two Most Dominant Brands (Churchill Downs, Inc. and the New York Racing Association) Unite in an Attempt to “Take Over 3-Year-Old Racing in America.”

Seriously, horse racing “biggest events” include the Matt Winn, the Jim Dandy and a race with no name, but do not include the Preakness, Haskell or Pennsylvania Derby.

Obviously, I am biased as my two favorite racing days are the Preakness in my hometown and the Pa. Derby in my home. And it is hard to imagine how this new series of six races (Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Matt Winn, Jim Dandy, Travers and the horse racing equivalent of the Washington Football Team) is not going to negatively affect both of those days.

We have all been waiting for years to hear about a date adjustment for the Triple Crown races, the one event in horse racing that breaks through to the general public every year, the one thing that works and is as popular as it’s ever been. Instead of a change that would reflect modern reality in horse racing and have, say, four weeks from Derby to Preakness and four weeks from Preakness to Belmont, we get an announcement that says the Derby and Belmont will be five weeks apart in 2027, leaving same as it’s been room in the middle for the Preakness.

Apparently, the Maryland Jockey Club is about to make an announcement about a 2027 date and a television partner for the Preakness. Can’t imagine they were expecting this news on Monday.

Not to be cynical, but this really appears to be CDI reacting to the state of Maryland deciding to buy back rights to a piece of the Preakness weekend parimutuel action that CDI thought it had purchased from the Stronach Group a few months ago. The state had that right and exercised it. Now, CDI and NYRA team up on this series right before the MJC is about to make an announcement on the future of the Preakness. Hard not to be cynical.

As to the new series, I hope it manages to keep the best 3-year-olds racing more often. But to qualify for the $5 million in bonus money, a horse will have to run in at least four of the six races. That bonus money will be split back to eighth place. There were few details about which races will have the most bonus money, although it would certainly be expected that the Derby and Belmont would have more.

There are so many unanswered questions about the series. Perhaps, they will come in time when more of the structure will be explained.

For now, we know this: The Race to be Named at Churchill will be in late September, which has been the time for the Pennsylvania Derby since the race was moved off Labor Day in 2010. That date change turned out to be a stroke of brilliance as the race went from an overlooked Grade 2 into a $1 million Grade 1, which has attracted some of the county’s best 3-year-olds, trainers and jockeys to Parx.

Pa. Derby Day handle has skyrocketed as horses like Kentucky Derby winners California Chrome and Nyquist have come to Bensalem to run in a race that has served as a perfect bridge to the Breeders’ Cup. Pa Derby Day had $1.7 million in bets on Labor Day 2009, $2.3 million in late September 2010 and kept rising until a record $18.8 million was bet in 2022.  Now, all that has been built is in jeopardy because of the competition from the series finale at Churchill.

Horse Racing obviously has its share of problems. The Triple Crown, even with the anachronistic dates, is not one of them. Consider that in 2026, Derby Day, Preakness Day and Belmont Day attracted more than a half a billion dollars in wagers ($564 million). It was $340 million on Derby Day, $108 million on Preakness Day and $116 million on Belmont Day.

And this was a Preakness Day at Laurel Park (capacity 4,800) as Pimlico was being rebuilt and without the Derby winner. Preakness Day is one of four annual days with a $100 million handle (Breeders’ Cup Saturday is the other). Why would you want to mess with that?

Subject to change with more information, this feels like trainers and owners with top 3-year-olds will now have to decide whether to run in the Preakness at a mile and three-sixteenths or the Belmont Stakes at the now rarely used mile and a half. That is a pretty clear advantage for the Preakness, but it really should not be about that. It should be about trying to leverage everything that works to make it as good as it can be. And that certainly does not appear to be what is happening with this new series.

 

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