By Dick Jerardi
Since Pennsylvania Derby Day moved to late September, it has not only given the track national recognition, it has also proved to be a perfect final, 6-week-away prep day for the Breeders’ Cup.
Bayern won the 2014 Pa. Derby prior to winning the BC Classic. Untapable won the 2014 Cotillion before winning the BC Distaff. Trinniberg finished second in the 2012 and went on to win the BC Sprint. Will Take Charge won the 2013 Pa Derby before running an agonizing second in the Classic. Songbird won the 2016 Cotillion before her epic duel with Beholder in the Distaff that she did everything but win.
Four of the nine Saturday BC races at Del Mar have Pa. Derby Day Connections, including the Distaff with the great Cotillion winner Thorpedo Anna who has a real chance to become the first horse to win on the big day at Parx and be named Horse of the Year. Two-time Greenwood Cup (2023, 2024) winner Next steps out of his marathon comfort zone to take on the world’s best in the Classic. The Dirt Mile, which will be the final BC race, has the last two Pa. Derby winners – Saudi Crown (2023) and Seize the Grey (2024). Fast and tough Gallant Bob winner Bentornato goes in the Sprint.
Now that last year’s Distaff winner Idiomatic has been retired, Thorpedo Anna will be odds on in the Distaff. Don’t be fooled by her close win in the Cotillion. Whatever could go wrong during that race did go wrong. Her recent works look similar to her works before the Travers when she nearly beat Fierceness.
There is not much early speed in the Distaff so expect jockey Brian Hernandez to ride the filly like he did in the Kentucky Oaks when she went gate to wire. Alice Verite from Japan is a bit of a run off so she very well could set the pace if Thorpedo Anna does not. The other Japanese filly, unbeaten (7-for-7) Awesome Result is a bit of a mystery as it is difficult to evaluate her competition.
Bottom line, if Thorpedo Anna runs like she has all year, she will be the second Cotillion/Distaff winner and live for Horse of the Year depending on how the Classic plays out.
If Fierceness wins the Classic and becomes the first horse to win the Juvenile and then the Classic, that is your Horse of the Year. If Next wins the Classic and finishes off an unbeaten season, you could make a case for him as Horse of the Year. If Thorpedo Anna wins and neither of those two wins the Classic, Thorpedo Anna is Horse of the Year.
So, about the Classic, what a fascinating race. City of Troy may very well be the world’s best horse, but that was all earned on grass. His trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 18 BC races, but is 0-for-17 in 14 Classics. Arthur’s Ride has the best set of Beyer figures, but those were earned with easy leads.
Fierceness is either really good or really bad. Lately, he has been really good. Any objective reading of the Kentucky Derby would reveal that Forever Young, after a trip from hell, was absolutely the best horse. Next is the ultimate wild card. How will he do chasing a much faster pace? Can he sustain that incredible stride and finish under far different circumstances? So many Classic questions, so few obvious answers.
It will be very cool to see Saudi Crown and Seize the Grey in the gate together. I think Saudi Crown is slightly the better of the two and after drawing the rail, the strategy is obvious. Florent Geroux will be sending Saudi Crown hard, hoping he can clear the field by the first turn and stay clear until the finish line. Seize the Grey has a similar running style so it will be interesting to watch the first 100 yards where the race could very well be won – or lost.
The Sprint is loaded with horses that like to race on the lead or at least not far from it – Skelly, Federal Judge, Mullikin, Don Frankie, Straight No Chaser, Raging Torrent and Bentornato. The likely race shape will make it difficult for Bentornato, but you can’t win it if you are not in it and this year, Pennsylvania Derby Day horses are very much in it on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.
