By Dick Jerardi
When the first horse crosses the finish line at the Kentucky Derby, everybody naturally focuses on the winner. This year, when it was Sovereignty, that led to the inevitable stories of Godolphin, the world’s most powerful stable and winners of just about every major race in the world many times over, finally winning its first Derby. And the Derby just happened to come in the midst of a perfect and unprecedented weekend for the stable which won the Kentucky Oaks Friday as well as the 2000 Guineas (Saturday) and the 1000 Guineas (Sunday) at Newmarket in England, four Grade I or Group I Classics in three days.
I wanted to know the reasons behind the result. I thought Journalism was going to win the Derby. In fact, it was my strongest Derby opinion since Justify in 2018 and, before that, California Chrome in 2014. So why did Sovereignty win by 1 1/2 lengths, with Journalism second just ahead of Baeza in third? That was the story that interested me the most as I started watching Derby replays Saturday night.
Sovereignty needed to run the race of his life to win and he did it. He was a bit light on the Beyer speed figure scale with a career best 95 when he won the Fountain of Youth Stakes, lengths behind Journalism’s career top of 108 when he won the San Felipe. The winning Derby Beyer was 104.
It was an article of faith that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott would have Sovereignty ready to run the race of his life. I accepted that, but still did not think it was going to be good enough. I thought Journalism and Burnham Square would run better which was why I was touting the 8/9 exacta all week. When my estimated $75 probable payoff (for each $2 bet) was holding at $82 as post time approached, I did not hesitate to fire.
I have always thought the outside posts are an edge in the Derby because it is much easier to stay away from the chaos of the huge Derby fields out there. And that’s exactly what Sovereignty did from the 16 post under a perfect ride from Junior Alvarado.
The jockey just settled the horse near the back, got him away from traffic and kept him comfortable until it was time to go when the field was approaching the far turn. And when Sovereignty was asked, he came with a long, sustained run, following Journalism around the gasping leaders on the far turn, eventually wearing down the 3.42-1 favorite in the final 100 yards.
Perfectly prepared by a master horseman, Sovereignty was absolutely a deserving winner. And 7.98-1 was quite an amazing gift as the result of another bizarre Derby win pool in which so many apparently are looking for the next Giacomo, Mine That Bird or Rich Strike.
I had texted this to Journalism’s trainer Michael McCarthy the Tuesday before the race: “I have this recurring vision of 5 or so horses near the front after the first turn, you in the clear about 5 lengths behind with 14 or so strung out behind you.”
Did not exactly turn out that way. When Citizen Bull and jockey Martin Garcia took a sharp right turn out the gate, the traffic got squeezed behind them. And Journalism was one of those that got squeezed. Instead of the comfortable trip I had envisioned, Journalism was briefly caught in the maelstrom and had to use energy early that he needed late.
Instead of the position I had envisioned, Journalism, running on a sloppy track that he had never even experienced in training, came out of the first turn with half the field in front of him and half in back. He was even behind confirmed deep closers like Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold and Flying Mohawk.
Comfortable is the key word in racing. Journalism was out of his comfort zone. Still, the colt came with the big turn run, the move that often wins the Derby. The problem was that Sovereignty came with an even better move.
Would Journalism have won without the early issues? No way to know, but it will always be a what if in my mind.
But that really is the game. The trainer can do everything right in the leadup, but then after months of preparation, what happens in seconds, good or bad, has an outsized effect on the result.
“We’ll have our day in the sun,” McCarthy texted at the end of an exchange Sunday morning.
So what of Burnham Square? Well, jockey Brian Hernandez was giving him the Mystik Dan trip along the rail. But, at around the half- mile pole, no hoper Admire Daytona suddenly switched lanes and cut Burnham Square off, stopping his momentum completely at a critical juncture. The gelding dropped back dramatically as the field was heading for the far turn. Burnham Square still had enough left that he overcame all that and made an heroic rally to be sixth. Would have been much closer to first without the trouble caused by a horse that eventually finished last.
Baeza got held up a bit in traffic on the turn, but made a big run stretch rally and just missed catching a tiring Journalism for second. This is a very impressive colt with a big future.
Like the two Derbies before it, a hot early pace absolutely affected the result. The horses that were 16th, 10th, 14th and 19th (Final Gambit) after a quarter mile finished 1-2-3-4.
The horses that were first, second, third, fourth and fifth early, finished 15th, 13th, fifth, 16th and 19th. Owen Almighty, whose trainer did not want to run him, was the anomaly, running an absolutely brilliant race to be fifth after being wide all the way while prompting the hot pace. He was beaten by 9 lengths in the end, but that does not remotely tell the tale of how well he ran. Did the colt get better or did the son of Speightstown just love the sloppy surface? Time will tell.
The top three finishers all look like serious, long term players in a 3-year-old division whose leader is Sovereignty, but whose champion is far from determined. Love to see some or all of them and Burnham Square at the Pennsylvania Derby in September.
