By Dick Jerardi
What has always fascinated me about horse racing is that you never really know when you are going to see something you have never seen before or learn you are wrong about something when you are absolutely convinced you are right.
I have not spoken with a single person in horse racing who ever saw anything like Journalism’s win in the Preakness. Horses simply do not do what Journalism did that Saturday at Pimlico. They don’t squeeze through holes that don’t exist, lose all momentum and then chase down a horse with a seemingly insurmountable lead all in the space of 30 seconds.
On March 1, Journalism ran down a highly-touted loose leader in Barnes to win the San Felipe and get a 108 Beyer. The colt became my Kentucky Derby horse that day. He was not supposed to win, but won anyway. In the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism lost position when, ironically, Barnes leaned on him as the field neared the far turn. Journalism dropped back and looked for an instant like he was not going to fire. But he got back into the race instantly and ran down Baeza to win again.
Journalism again lost position in the Derby when Citizen Bull took a right turn out of the gate and triggered a chain reaction traffic jam with almost all of the horses having single-digit post positions. Still, Journalism made a big run to take the lead in the stretch. That he could not hold off Sovereignty and had to settle for second could, in my mind, be explained by the dream trip Sovereignty had from the back behind a hot pace and the early traffic issues that may have contributed to Journalism’s energy use at the start which were needed at the finish.
Journalism earned his third consecutive triple-digit Beyer in the Derby. Sovereignty improved his best Beyer by 10 points under conditions that I was certain he would not get in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. The data I rely on along with my visual observations were screaming at me that Journalism was the horse I believed in from March 1, that he was going to give another great performance. The third race in five weeks did not really concern me. The top 3-year-olds (Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, the Triple Crown winners) can hold their form all the way through the series.
Well, I was absolutely right about Journalism. He ran exactly like I thought he would run in the Belmont. He finally stayed outside away from the traffic, made his move on the turn, took a clear lead in the stretch, stormed home the final quarter mile in 24.6 seconds, earned his fourth triple-digit Beyer and got crushed by Sovereignty.
As I saw it happening, I was astonished. I knew Journalism was running about as fast as horses can run at the end of 10 furlongs. And there was Sovereignty, a Derby winner, but also a winner of just half of his starts, running faster than horses have any right to run at the end of 10 furlongs. Let’s call the colt’s final quarter 23.6 seconds. Well, like Journalism’s run in the Preakness, that does not happen either. But it did happen.
Until Saturday, I considered Sovereignty more of a grinder that needed a pace up top to be at his best. Well, that stretch run was an amazing display of acceleration. The Beyer came back 109, serious business for a 3-year-old in early June. I absolutely saw something I did not expect to see. But I saw it and it was very real. Clearly, I was wrong about Sovereignty, a colt in the hands of master trainer Bill Mott who I should have known would have him ready to run his very best in the races that matter most.
Sovereignty was much closer to the pace than usual partially because the pace was moderate over a very fast surface. Beyond that, it is a great sign when young horses begin to show more speed to get improved early position. That was the tipoff that we were about to see such a flying finish from the Derby and now Belmont Stakes winner.
Sovereignty is by super sire Into Mischief out of a Pennsylvania bred mare named Crowned. She was sold for $1.2 million at the 2014 Keeneland September yearling sale. She commanded that price because she was by 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini out of Mushka, who won the Spinster and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, for Betty Moran’s Brushwood Stable. Crowned never got to the races.
Mott, who trained Mushka, also trained Sovereignty’s two full sisters. They went a combined 1-for-15, proving once again in this game you may not know even when you are absolutely certain you do.
